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One term with which most customers of online sportsbooks will become familiar when analysing the various betting systems that are available around the web is Value Betting.
With the myriad strategies that exist and which the so-called experts all variously swear by one could be forgiven for thinking that Value Betting was just another fad in the ongoing, relentless quest to discover a means through which to beat the bookies. But Value Betting, in theory at least, has to lead to a profitable betting experience in the long term.
The concept of Value in betting is fairly straightforward. It essentially means that the price on offer is more generous than the real chances of the preferred outcome occurring would actually suggest.
Or to put that in a different way, in a sporting contest between two competitors of exactly equal ability in which the only two possible outcomes are a win for one or a win for the other, the real odds on either competitor will be 2.00 (1/1), or Evens in everyday parlance. Sportsbooks which concur with the view that both competitors have an exactly equal chance of winning will typically offer something less than Evens, let us say 1.91 (10/11) or 1.83 (5/6). The bit missing is what is called the "house edge", or the mark-up that ensures that the bookie will be in credit regardless of who wins the contest.
Now just imagine for a moment that one sportsbook gets it "wrong", and prices one competitor up at 2.10 (11/10). A return of A�2.10 for a stake of A�1.00 on a competitor with an exactly 50-50 chance of winning is a classic example of what constitutes a Value Bet.
The competitor's chance of winning the contest will still be Evens whatever price is quoted. In other words, there is still just as much chance of your bet losing than there is of it winning. Nonetheless if you were to make a hundred similar wagers applying the same criteria it would be reasonable to expect that you would end up in pocket, as every losing bet would cost you A�1.00 (or a multiple thereof) whilst every successful bet would win you A�1.10.
Value Bets do often turn up in online sports betting. There are a variety of reasons for this - sportsbook error, or a lack of detailed insight into the event in question, being amongst them. Odds comparison services often use complicated formulae to determine which prices represent true Value Bets.
However, you will have noticed that earlier in this article the words "in theory" were used. There is a good, valid reason for this. On occasions a sportsbook will have insider knowledge that is unknown to others but which leads them to offer what would appear on the surface to be an over-generous price on a particular market. Let's say for instance that a book had inside information that a boxer was carrying a hand injury. That book might be persuaded to offer a more attractive price than others who were in the dark, figuring that there is a greater chance of the boxer losing or quitting than the popular price might suggest.. Under circumstances like this, the "Value Bet" actually becomes a mug bet.
There is no easy way of knowing whether what seems like an attractive price is being offered by a particular book through ignorance or as a consequence of insider knowledge. Sometimes an inspired guess can be made - if a Russian book, for example, was to offer an unusual price on a Russian sporting event it might be prudent to anticipate that its linemakers thereof are better informed than those at, say, a UK or US-offshore book.
The punter who can get Value Betting right every time will in become a rich man or woman. The challenge is always to know when to weigh in and when to leave well alone.
One area of exception however, where Value Bets do not count for a great deal, is where an online free bet is being used.
Many sportsbooks will offer customers, particularly new customers, free bets as an incentive to play with them. The tactical punter will lay these off at a betting exchange to lock in an assured profit. This is called matched betting and when used in the right way provides a guaranteed dividend that well supplements the efforts of the Value Bettor.
With the myriad strategies that exist and which the so-called experts all variously swear by one could be forgiven for thinking that Value Betting was just another fad in the ongoing, relentless quest to discover a means through which to beat the bookies. But Value Betting, in theory at least, has to lead to a profitable betting experience in the long term.
The concept of Value in betting is fairly straightforward. It essentially means that the price on offer is more generous than the real chances of the preferred outcome occurring would actually suggest.
Or to put that in a different way, in a sporting contest between two competitors of exactly equal ability in which the only two possible outcomes are a win for one or a win for the other, the real odds on either competitor will be 2.00 (1/1), or Evens in everyday parlance. Sportsbooks which concur with the view that both competitors have an exactly equal chance of winning will typically offer something less than Evens, let us say 1.91 (10/11) or 1.83 (5/6). The bit missing is what is called the "house edge", or the mark-up that ensures that the bookie will be in credit regardless of who wins the contest.
Now just imagine for a moment that one sportsbook gets it "wrong", and prices one competitor up at 2.10 (11/10). A return of A�2.10 for a stake of A�1.00 on a competitor with an exactly 50-50 chance of winning is a classic example of what constitutes a Value Bet.
The competitor's chance of winning the contest will still be Evens whatever price is quoted. In other words, there is still just as much chance of your bet losing than there is of it winning. Nonetheless if you were to make a hundred similar wagers applying the same criteria it would be reasonable to expect that you would end up in pocket, as every losing bet would cost you A�1.00 (or a multiple thereof) whilst every successful bet would win you A�1.10.
Value Bets do often turn up in online sports betting. There are a variety of reasons for this - sportsbook error, or a lack of detailed insight into the event in question, being amongst them. Odds comparison services often use complicated formulae to determine which prices represent true Value Bets.
However, you will have noticed that earlier in this article the words "in theory" were used. There is a good, valid reason for this. On occasions a sportsbook will have insider knowledge that is unknown to others but which leads them to offer what would appear on the surface to be an over-generous price on a particular market. Let's say for instance that a book had inside information that a boxer was carrying a hand injury. That book might be persuaded to offer a more attractive price than others who were in the dark, figuring that there is a greater chance of the boxer losing or quitting than the popular price might suggest.. Under circumstances like this, the "Value Bet" actually becomes a mug bet.
There is no easy way of knowing whether what seems like an attractive price is being offered by a particular book through ignorance or as a consequence of insider knowledge. Sometimes an inspired guess can be made - if a Russian book, for example, was to offer an unusual price on a Russian sporting event it might be prudent to anticipate that its linemakers thereof are better informed than those at, say, a UK or US-offshore book.
The punter who can get Value Betting right every time will in become a rich man or woman. The challenge is always to know when to weigh in and when to leave well alone.
One area of exception however, where Value Bets do not count for a great deal, is where an online free bet is being used.
Many sportsbooks will offer customers, particularly new customers, free bets as an incentive to play with them. The tactical punter will lay these off at a betting exchange to lock in an assured profit. This is called matched betting and when used in the right way provides a guaranteed dividend that well supplements the efforts of the Value Bettor.
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